Friday, March 2, 2012

5 Year Total Return Performance by Asset Class

Courtesy of Deutsche Bank, we see the 5 Year Total Return Performance of stocks, bonds, precious metals, etc. As noted here, Gold, Silver, and Bonds have significantly outperformed equities. On a side note, somewhat surprising to me was how well High Yield bonds have performed, and how poorly the Shanghai Index as performed over the last 5 years. China's GDP continues to grow, and the China bulls continue to point out that China will be the leading economic powerhouse in the 21st Century, but whether this is true or not, we won't know yet, but what we can note is that the market is weary of China and its rate of "real" growth (not nominal).

My concluding point is that everyone says that gold/silver will continue to go up, stocks will trade range bound and bonds have to be approaching their own bear market.......but, if this run-up in Gold/Silver doesn't scream there's some type of bubble, then I don't know what does. Gold and Silver are typically a good hedge against a currency being debased (which, we all can agree is occurring in Europe and the US), but at these types of levels, do you really think the reward outweighs the risk?