Actually a day late....no comment published today.....but here's my take on what we're seeing.
The good news is that although the bond market is still pointing to a slowdown, it's not pointing to a recession (as noted by an inverted yield curve). On the equities side, I still don't believe we are through yet with all this volatility. I actually saw yesterday where BofA Merrill's head strategist believes the S&P will hit 1400 by end of the year (15% gain from yesterday). He believes it will be back-end loaded, but I just have a hard time seeing this, with everything going on in Europe and the lack of jobs in US. Banks are shedding jobs by the thousands right now, and if investors continue to question the banking system, we are going to have some more pain to come. My guess is that investors are positioning themselves for something big this weekend from the Fed at Jackson Hole, but I think they're going to be disappointed. The other problem I see is that we have all these factors that must all happen to help the stock market stabilize or rise: Europe not implode, China not slow down and unemployment to remain steady (and hopefully decline).....but if just one of these goes wrong, then the market will resume its downward spiral again. Worst case scenario won't hit the lows we hit in 2008, but it will be enough to scare more investors to the sidelines. Just my quick thoughts
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